A new study by the University of Bristol has revealed that certain regions worldwide are most at risk of the devastating effects of scorching temperatures due to their under-preparedness. The research, published in Nature Communications, used extreme value statistics and large datasets from climate models and observations to identify regions where temperature records are most likely to be broken soonest and where communities are in the greatest danger of experiencing extreme heat. Regions including Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea, Central America, Beijing, and Central Europe are highlighted as hotspots, as record-breaking heatwaves could have severe consequences for their densely populated areas with limited healthcare and energy provision.
The study suggests that countries yet to experience the most intense heatwaves are especially susceptible, as adaptation measures are often only introduced after the event. A high chance of record-breaking temperatures, growing populations, and limited healthcare and energy provision increases the risks. The researchers also cautioned that statistically implausible extremes, when current records are broken by margins that seemed impossible until they occurred, could happen anywhere. These unlikely events were found to have transpired in almost a third (31%) of the regions assessed between 1959 and 2021, such as the 2021 Western North America heatwave.
Lead author, climate scientist Dr. Vikki Thompson, has called for policymakers in hotspot regions to consider appropriate action plans to reduce the risk of deaths and associated harms from climate extremes. Improving our understanding of where society may not be ready for climate extremes can help prioritize mitigation in the most vulnerable regions. In recognition of the dangerous consequences of climate change, the University of Bristol became the first UK university to declare a climate emergency in 2019.
Human-induced climate change is causing an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves, potentially leading to thousands more excess deaths globally. Co-author Dann Mitchell, Professor in Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment, emphasized that being prepared saves lives. Governments worldwide need to take proactive steps to mitigate the risks of record-breaking heat waves and protect their populations.
References
- Thompson, V., Mitchell, D., Hegerl, G. C., Collins, M., Leach, N. J., & Slingo, J. M. (2023). The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves. Nature Communications, 14(1), 2152. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37554-1
- University of Bristol. (2023, April 25). Research reveals countries where record-breaking heatwaves are likely to cause most harm. University of Bristol; University of Bristol. https://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2023/april/record-breaking-heatwaves.html
