At a Glance
- Researchers analyzed oxygen isotopes in a Mexican stalagmite to create a subannual rainfall record spanning from 871 to 1021 CE, a critical period in Maya history.
- The highly detailed climate data revealed a 13-year drought and eight other wet-season droughts, each lasting for at least three consecutive years, during the Terminal Classic period.
- This new climate timeline aligns with archaeological evidence indicating that political activity at major northern Maya sites, such as Chichén Itzá, declined during these droughts.
- Unlike previous studies using lake sediment, the stalagmite record provides season-specific detail, allowing for a more fine-grained analysis of human-climate interactions at individual Maya sites.
- The findings suggest different Maya centers responded variably to climate stress, highlighting the complex relationship between environmental change and societal upheaval that led to the civilization’s transformation.
New research published in the journal Science Advances provides the most detailed climate record to date for the era of the Classic Maya collapse, linking the society’s decline to a series of severe, multi-year droughts. A team led by the University of Cambridge analyzed a stalagmite from a cave in the Yucatán Peninsula, creating a subannual rainfall history from 871 to 1021 CE. This high-resolution timeline offers a new framework for understanding how climate stress impacted one of the ancient world’s most advanced civilizations during its period of major sociopolitical upheaval.
At the heart of the study are stalagmites, the icicle-shaped rock formations that grow upward from a cave floor. As water drips from the cave ceiling, it leaves behind mineral deposits in thin layers, trapping chemical clues about the environment. Scientists measured variations in oxygen isotopes—different forms of the oxygen atom—within these annual layers. These isotopes serve as a proxy, or indirect measure, of past rainfall, enabling the team to distinguish between wet and dry seasons with unprecedented accuracy —a level of detail not previously possible with methods such as analyzing lake sediments.
The stalagmite’s chemical fingerprints revealed that the Terminal Classic period was marked by extreme climate instability. The data revealed eight separate wet-season droughts that lasted three years or more, with the longest and most severe drought persisting for 13 consecutive years. Such prolonged dry spells would have been devastating for a civilization heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture. Even with the advanced water management systems for which the Maya were known, a drought of this duration would have placed immense stress on their food supply and social structure.
By aligning this precise climate data with the archaeological record, the researchers found strong correlations between the timing of the droughts and a decline in cultural activity at major northern Maya sites, including Chichén Itzá and Uxmal. During the most intense dry periods, the construction of stone monuments and the inscription of dates—key indicators of political stability and power—ceased or slowed to a halt entirely. The findings suggest that while climate change was a major contributing factor, different Maya centers may have responded to the environmental stress in unique ways and at different times, adding a new layer of complexity to the story of the Maya collapse.
References
- James, D. H., Carolin, S. A., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Hoggarth, J. A., Lases-Hernández, F., Endsley, E. A., Curtis, J. H., Gallup, C. D., Milbrath, S., Nicolson, J., Rolfe, J., Kwiecien, O., Ottley, C. J., Iveson, A. A., Baldini, J. U. L., Brenner, M., Henderson, G. M., & Hodell, D. A. (2025). Classic Maya response to multiyear seasonal droughts in Northwest Yucatán, Mexico. Science Advances, 11(33), eadw7661. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adw7661
- University of Cambridge. (2025, August 13). Stalagmites in Mexican caves reveal duration and severity of drought during the Maya collapse. Phys.Org; University of Cambridge. https://phys.org/news/2025-08-stalagmites-mexican-caves-reveal-duration.html
