At a Glance
- A recent study found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has remained stable over the past six decades, countering previous concerns about its imminent collapse.
- Researchers used air-sea heat flux data instead of sea surface temperature measurements to assess the AMOC’s behavior more accurately.
- The study disputes earlier claims of significant AMOC weakening, suggesting that while future slowdowns are possible, a sudden collapse is unlikely in the near term.
- The findings offer a more nuanced understanding of the AMOC’s role in regulating Earth’s climate, emphasizing the need for ongoing monitoring and research.
- Despite promising results, scientists highlight uncertainties about the AMOC’s future response to climate change, urging continued research to inform climate policy and planning.
A new study on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) challenges previous predictions about the stability of this vital ocean current system. The AMOC plays a crucial role in regulating Earth’s climate by moving warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. As the climate changes, scientists have been concerned that fresh water from melting ice sheets could weaken or collapse the AMOC, causing severe climate shifts. However, a recent study published in Nature Communications suggests that the AMOC has not weakened in the last 60 years, offering some hope that it may not be as close to collapse as previously thought.
The research team from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and the University of Bern conducted an in-depth analysis of the AMOC’s past using new methods to measure its behavior. In the past, scientists had used sea surface temperatures to track changes in the AMOC, but this method was found to be unreliable. Instead, the team used air-sea heat flux data, which measures how heat moves between the ocean and atmosphere. Despite some natural variability, they found that the AMOC has remained stable over the past six decades.
The study’s results challenge earlier findings that suggested the AMOC had weakened significantly. Using more accurate data from climate models and observational records, the researchers showed that the AMOC’s strength has not declined over the past several decades. This suggests that, while the AMOC is likely to slow down in the future, a sudden collapse may not be as imminent as once feared. The findings offer a new perspective on how we understand the impacts of climate change on ocean currents.
While these results are promising, the researchers caution that there is still uncertainty about the AMOC’s future. They emphasize that more research is needed to fully understand the long-term effects of climate change on the system. However, the study provides valuable insight into how the AMOC functions and how it may respond to future environmental changes, offering vital information for scientists and policymakers working to address climate change.
References
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. (2025, January 15). Critical ocean current has not declined in the last 60 years, AMOC study finds. Phys.Org; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. https://phys.org/news/2025-01-critical-ocean-current-declined-years.html
- Terhaar, J., Vogt, L., & Foukal, N. P. (2025). Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s. Nature Communications, 16(1), 222. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55297-5
