{"id":9841,"date":"2023-08-17T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-17T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/?p=9841"},"modified":"2023-08-03T16:26:03","modified_gmt":"2023-08-03T16:26:03","slug":"ancient-pathogens-released-from-melting-ice-could-wreak-havoc-on-the-world-new-analysis-reveals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/ancient-pathogens-released-from-melting-ice-could-wreak-havoc-on-the-world-new-analysis-reveals\/","title":{"rendered":"Ancient pathogens released from melting ice could wreak havoc on the world, new analysis reveals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n \n
\n \n Shutterstock<\/span><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\nCorey J. A. Bradshaw<\/a>, Flinders University<\/a><\/em> and Giovanni Strona<\/a>, University of Helsinki<\/a><\/em><\/span>\n\n

Science fiction is rife with fanciful tales of deadly organisms emerging from the ice and wreaking havoc on unsuspecting human victims. <\/p>\n\n

From shape-shifting aliens<\/a> in Antarctica, to super-parasites emerging from a thawing woolly mammoth<\/a> in Siberia, to exposed permafrost in Greenland<\/a> causing a viral pandemic \u2013 the concept is marvellous plot fodder.<\/p>\n\n

But just how far-fetched is it? Could pathogens that were once common on Earth \u2013 but frozen for millennia in glaciers, ice caps and permafrost<\/a> \u2013 emerge from the melting ice to lay waste to modern ecosystems? The potential is, in fact, quite real. <\/p>\n\n

Dangers lying in wait<\/h2>\n\n

In 2003, bacteria were revived<\/a> from samples taken from the bottom of an ice core drilled into an ice cap<\/a> on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau<\/a>. The ice at that depth was more than 750,000 years old. <\/p>\n\n

In 2014, a giant \u201czombie\u201d Pithovirus sibericum<\/em> virus was revived from<\/a> 30,000-year-old Siberian permafrost.<\/p>\n\n

And in 2016, an outbreak of anthrax<\/a> (a disease caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis<\/em>) in western Siberia<\/a> was attributed to the rapid thawing of B. anthracis<\/em> spores<\/a> in permafrost. It killed thousands of reindeer and affected dozens of people.<\/p>\n\n

\n \"\"\n
\n Bacillus anthracis<\/em> is a soil bacterium that causes anthrax.<\/span>\n William A. Clark\/USCDCP<\/span><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n

More recently, scientists found remarkable genetic compatibility<\/a> between viruses isolated from lake sediments in the high Arctic and potential living hosts.<\/p>\n\n

Earth\u2019s climate is warming at a spectacular rate<\/a>, and up to four times faster in colder regions<\/a> such as the Arctic. Estimates suggest we can expect four sextillion<\/a> (4,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) microorganisms to be released from ice melt each year. This is about the same as the estimated number of stars in the universe<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, despite the unfathomably large number of microorganisms being released from melting ice (including pathogens that can potentially infect modern species), no one has been able to estimate the risk this poses to modern ecosystems.<\/p>\n\n

In a new study<\/a> published today in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, we calculated the ecological risks posed by the release of unpredictable ancient viruses.<\/p>\n\n

Our simulations show that 1% of simulated releases of just one dormant pathogen could cause major environmental damage and the widespread loss of host organisms around the world.<\/p>\n\n

\n \"\"<\/a>\n
\n Melt water carving a glacier in the Himalayas of India.<\/span>\n Sharada Prasad<\/span><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n

Digital worlds<\/h2>\n\n

We used a software called Avida<\/a> to run experiments that simulated the release of one type of ancient pathogen into modern biological communities. <\/p>\n\n

We then measured the impacts of this invading pathogen on the diversity of modern host bacteria in thousands of simulations, and compared these to simulations where no invasion occurred.<\/p>\n\n

The invading pathogens often survived and evolved in the simulated modern world. About 3% of the time the pathogen became dominant in the new environment, in which case they were very likely to cause losses to modern host diversity. <\/p>\n\n

In the worst- (but still entirely plausible) case scenario, the invasion reduced the size of its host community by 30% when compared to controls.<\/p>\n\n

The risk from this small fraction of pathogens might seem small, but keep in mind these are the results of releasing just one particular pathogen in simulated environments. With the sheer number of ancient microbes being released in the real world, such outbreaks represent a substantial danger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Extinction and disease<\/h2>\n\n

Our findings suggest this unpredictable threat which has so far been confined to science fiction could become a powerful driver of ecological change. <\/p>\n\n

While we didn\u2019t model the potential risk to humans, the fact that \u201ctime-travelling\u201d pathogens could become established and severely degrade a host community is already worrisome.<\/p>\n\n

\n \"\"\n
\n Drilling ice cores in Greenland.<\/span>\n Helle Astrid Kj\u00e6r<\/span><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n

We highlight yet another source of potential species extinction in the modern era \u2013 one which even our worst-case extinction models<\/a> do not include. As a society, we need to understand the potential risks so we can prepare for them.<\/p>\n\n

Notable viruses such as SARS-CoV-2<\/a>, Ebola<\/a> and HIV<\/a> were likely transmitted to humans via contact with other animal hosts. So it is plausible<\/a> that a once ice-bound virus could enter the human population via a zoonotic pathway<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

While the likelihood of a pathogen emerging from melting ice and causing catastrophic extinctions is low, our results show this is no longer a fantasy for which we shouldn\u2019t prepare.\"The<\/p>\n\n

\n \"\"<\/a>\n
\n They may only be microscopic \u2013 and far from the giant flesh-eating bugs you\u2019ll see in sci-fi films \u2013 but the risks posed by pathogens shouldn\u2019t be underestimated.<\/span>\n Giovanni Strona, 2023 (based on previous work by Oksana Dobrovolska)<\/a>, CC BY-SA<\/a><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n

Corey J. A. Bradshaw<\/a>, Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology and Models Theme Leader for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Flinders University<\/a><\/em> and Giovanni Strona<\/a>, Doctoral program supervisor, University of Helsinki<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Shutterstock Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Flinders University and Giovanni Strona, University of Helsinki Science fiction is rife with…\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":9769,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13,11],"tags":[120,173,375,643,418,474],"class_list":{"0":"post-9841","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-earth","8":"category-nature","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-global-warming","11":"tag-ice","12":"tag-pathogen","13":"tag-permafrost","14":"tag-the-conversation","15":"cs-entry","16":"cs-video-wrap"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9841"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9841\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9843,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9841\/revisions\/9843"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}