{"id":6372,"date":"2023-05-29T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-29T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/?p=6372"},"modified":"2023-05-19T09:25:45","modified_gmt":"2023-05-19T09:25:45","slug":"global-warming-to-bring-record-hot-year-by-2028-probably-our-first-above-1-5c-limit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/global-warming-to-bring-record-hot-year-by-2028-probably-our-first-above-1-5c-limit\/","title":{"rendered":"Global warming to bring record hot year by 2028 \u2013 probably our first above 1.5\u00b0C limit"},"content":{"rendered":"\nAndrew King<\/a>, The University of Melbourne<\/a><\/em><\/span>\n\n

One year in the next five will almost certainly be the hottest on record and there\u2019s a two-in-three chance a single year will cross the crucial 1.5\u2103 global warming threshold, an alarming new report<\/a> by the World Meteorological Organization predicts.<\/p>\n\n

The report, known as the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update<\/a>, warns if humanity fails to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, increasingly worse heat records will tumble beyond this decade.<\/p>\n\n

So what is driving the bleak outlook for the next five years? An expected El Ni\u00f1o, on top of the overall global warming trend, will likely push the global temperature to record levels.<\/p>\n\n

Has the Paris Agreement already failed if the global average temperature exceeds the 1.5\u2103 threshold in one of the next five years? No, but it will be a stark warning of what\u2019s in store if we don\u2019t quickly reduce emissions to net zero.<\/p>\n\n

\n \"boy\n
\n One year in the next five will almost certainly be the hottest on record, bringing more heatwaves like this boy experienced in Britain around the time the last record was set.<\/span>\n Andy Rain\/EPA<\/span><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Warming makes record heat inevitable<\/h2>\n\n

The World Meteorological Organization update says there is a 98% chance at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record. And there\u2019s a 66% chance of at least one year over the 1.5\u2103 threshold.<\/p>\n\n

There\u2019s also a 32% chance the average temperature over the next five years will exceed the 1.5\u2103 threshold. The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5\u2103 has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, it was a 10% chance. <\/p>\n\n

Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have already driven up global average temperatures by more than 1\u2103 since the late 19th century. The update notes the 2022 average global temperature was about 1.15\u2103 above the 1850-1900 average, despite the cooling influence of La Ni\u00f1a<\/a> conditions. Temperatures are now rising by about 0.2\u2103 per decade<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

\n \"\"<\/a>\n
\n Global average surface temperatures relative to 1850-1900 from major datasets. The temperature is increasing by about 0.2\u00b0C per decade.<\/span>\n UK Met Office<\/a><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n

We now have more than a century of global mean temperature data. That means it should be getting harder, not easier, to achieve new records. If there was no trend, we would expect to see fewer records as time passes and the data we\u2019ve collected better captures the full range of natural climate variability. <\/p>\n\n

Instead, because we are warming the world so quickly, more heat records are being set globally and at the local level<\/a>. The human influence on the climate is pushing temperatures to unprecedented highs with alarming frequency.<\/p>\n\n

Add El Ni\u00f1o, then extreme highs are likely<\/h2>\n\n

The current record global average temperature dates back to 2016<\/a>. A major El Ni\u00f1o event<\/a> early that year pushed up the global average temperature. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o events are associated with warmer-than-normal seas over much of the central and eastern Pacific. This helps warm the lower atmosphere and raise global temperatures by about 0.1\u2103<\/a>. This might not sound like much, but with rapid background warming it\u2019s often enough to break the previous record.<\/p>\n\n

In the seven years since the current global temperature record, humanity has continued to intensify the greenhouse effect. This is making a new record ever more likely.<\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o conditions are starting to form<\/a> in the Pacific and are looking increasingly likely to take hold in June and July. This could be the first significant El Ni\u00f1o since 2016. An El Ni\u00f1o would greatly increase the chance of breaking that year\u2019s record high global average temperature, particularly in 2024. <\/p>\n\n

Does this mean the Paris Agreement has already failed?<\/h2>\n\n

Almost all nations around the world have signed the Paris Agreement<\/a>. The aim is to limit global warming to well below 2\u2103 and preferably below 1.5\u2103 above pre-industrial levels. <\/p>\n\n

The prediction that an individual year above 1.5\u2103 global warming is more likely than not is alarming. But it doesn\u2019t mean we have failed to achieve the Paris Agreement\u2019s goals. The agreement aims to limit long-term global warming to a level that avoids major climate impacts, including ecosystem loss. One or two years that pop over the 1.5\u2103 level don\u2019t constitute failure.<\/p>\n\n

However, the world is getting closer to the 1.5\u2103 global warming level due to our continuing high greenhouse gas emissions<\/a>. The forecast of a probable year that exceeds that level should serve as a warning. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n

Yet another sign of humanity\u2019s damage to the climate<\/h2>\n\n

Past inaction on reducing emissions and tackling climate change means we have already warmed the world by more than 1.2\u2103<\/a>. Global emissions remain at near-record high levels<\/a>, so we are continuing to intensify the greenhouse effect<\/a> and warm the planet. <\/p>\n\n

If we are to limit global warming to well below 2\u2103, then we must act so future generations don\u2019t suffer a much less hospitable planet.<\/p>\n\n

We have understood the solution for decades. We must reduce emissions to net zero<\/a> to stop warming Earth. Countries such as Australia, with high historical emissions, have a leading role to play by decarbonising electricity supply and ramping down coal, oil and gas production in line with goals laid out by the United Nations<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Failure to act should not be considered an option. Otherwise we are locking in more record hot years and much worse climate change impacts<\/a> for decades and centuries to come.\"The<\/p>\n\n

Andrew King<\/a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Andrew King, The University of Melbourne One year in the next five will almost certainly be the hottest…\n","protected":false},"author":471,"featured_media":6363,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[120,173,474],"class_list":{"0":"post-6372","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-earth","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-global-warming","10":"tag-the-conversation","11":"cs-entry","12":"cs-video-wrap"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/471"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6372"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6372\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6373,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6372\/revisions\/6373"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6363"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}