{"id":3660,"date":"2022-02-10T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-10T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/?p=3660"},"modified":"2022-01-27T06:23:15","modified_gmt":"2022-01-27T06:23:15","slug":"svalbards-glaciers-are-expected-to-lose-roughly-twice-as-much-ice-by-2100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/svalbards-glaciers-are-expected-to-lose-roughly-twice-as-much-ice-by-2100\/","title":{"rendered":"Svalbard\u2019s Glaciers Are Expected to Lose Roughly Twice as Much Ice by 2100"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As the worst effects of human impact on the climate worsen,  we expect to see more and more news like the loss of Siberian permafrost<\/a> and other similar tales. This brings to light the immediate need to turn things around before we leave lasting impacts on our planet<\/a> that not even our descendants can fix or reverse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The signs that we see from Norway\u2019s Svalbard archipelago don\u2019t seem to make things any better, as recent findings published in the journal Nature<\/em><\/a> show that the glaciers located above the famous island group are now in danger of experiencing double its current ice loss by the year 2100\u2014and that\u2019s considering that the world even meets its climate targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Nathorst Glacier is located in Svalbard and is one of the glaciers that stand to lose ice and contribute to global sea-level rise if we don\u2019t turn things around to prevent the dangerous effects of climate change. (Weith, 2015)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The are has warmed about 1.7 \u00b0C per decade since 1991\u2014seven (7) times higher than the global average within the same time period, according to New Scientist<\/em><\/a>. Additionally, a collaboration between Norwegian and US scientists used a combination of aerial photographs of several glaciers present in Svalbard from the 1930s and combined them with temperature and precipitation data to model ice loss around the area between the 1930s and 2010\u2014an approach the team called the \u201cspace-for-time\u201d approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the team revealed was alarming: at \u201cmodest\u201d warming, the rate at which the Svalbard glaciers thinned between the 1930s and 2010 increased some 1.9 times, at a rate of around 0.67 m a year. However, if things are left unchecked and climate change continues to worsen, the glaciers are expected to lose up to 0.92 m a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The images above show ice loss in a particular glacier in Svalbard. The image above was taken in 1936, while the one below was taken in 2009. (Geyman et al, 2022)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Said lead researcher Emily Geyman, from the California Institute of Technology: \u201cSvalbard is often treated as a canary in the coal mine. Studying the behavior of its glaciers gives you a glimpse into the future for other regions.\u201d Geyman added that while the findings have global ramifications, locals will feel the greatest effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is especially concerning given the fact that the archipelago contains the Svalbard Global Seed Vault<\/a>, a backup facility designed to serve as long-term storage of seed duplicates from crops around the world. After all, the facility relies on permafrost and rock surrounding the mountain it was built into to keep the seeds safe in case of a power outage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As of June 2021, the Svalbard Global Seed Vault contains some 1,081,000 distinct crop samples. (Subiet, 2019)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

According to Geyman, current glacial melt in Svalbard has already accounted for some 1.4% of global sea-level rise since 1936; however, the University of Colorado at Boulder\u2019s Twila Moon noted in an accompanying study also published in Nature<\/a> that predicted future ice loss levels were actually lower compared to previous projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the research team hopes that their novel \u201cspace-for-time\u201d approach can innovate other glaciers worldwide that struggle with historical data to compare recent readings to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/h2>\n\n\n\n