{"id":14664,"date":"2025-06-02T22:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/?p=14664"},"modified":"2025-05-27T17:13:36","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T17:13:36","slug":"earth-climate-outlook-2-7c-warming-paris-agreement-emissions-june-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/earth-climate-outlook-2-7c-warming-paris-agreement-emissions-june-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Earth is heading for 2.7\u00b0C warming this century. We may avoid the worst climate scenarios \u2013 but the outlook is still\u00a0dire"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n
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\n \n Aliraza Khatri’s Photography\/Getty<\/a><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n Sven Teske<\/a>, University of Technology Sydney<\/a><\/em><\/span>\n\n

Is climate action a lost cause? The United States is withdrawing<\/a> from the Paris Agreement for the second time, while heat records over land and sea have toppled<\/a> and extreme weather events have multiplied. <\/p>\n\n

In late 2015, nations agreed through the Paris Agreement to try to hold warming well under 2\u00b0C and ideally to 1.5\u00b0C. Almost ten years later, cutting emissions to the point of meeting the 1.5\u00b0C goal looks<\/a> very difficult. <\/p>\n\n

But humanity has shifted track enough to avert the worst climate future. Renewables, energy efficiency and other measures have shifted the dial. The worst case scenario<\/a> of expanded coal use, soaring emissions and a much hotter world is vanishingly unlikely. <\/p>\n\n

Instead, Earth is tracking towards around 2.7\u00b0C average warming by 2100. That level of warming would represent \u201cunprecedented peril<\/a>\u201d for life on this planet. But it shows progress is being made. <\/p>\n\n

How did we get here?<\/h2>\n\n

Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen since industrialisation began around 1850. Carbon dioxide (CO\u2082) is far and away the most common greenhouse gas we emit, while methane and nitrous oxide also play a role. These gases trap the sun\u2019s heat in the atmosphere, preventing it from radiating back out to space. <\/p>\n\n

In 2023<\/a>, 41% of the world\u2019s energy-related CO\u2082 emissions came from coal, mainly for electricity generation. Some 32% came from burning oil in road vehicles, and 21% from natural gas used for heating buildings and industrial processes. <\/p>\n\n

The world is certainly feeling the effects. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed 2024 was the hottest year on record<\/a>, temporarily hitting 1.5\u00b0C over the pre-industrial era. In turn, the world suffered<\/a> lethal heatwaves, devastating floods and intense cyclones. <\/p>\n\n

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\n Extreme weather hit hard in 2024. Pictured: Flooded houses after Cyclone Debby hit Florida.<\/span>\n Bilanol\/Shutterstock<\/a><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n

How are we tracking?<\/h2>\n\n

In 2014, the world\u2019s peak body for assessing climate science \u2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change \u2013 began using four scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). These four big picture climate scenarios are based on what actions humanity does or doesn\u2019t take. They comprise:<\/p>\n\n