{"id":14387,"date":"2025-05-19T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/?p=14387"},"modified":"2025-05-10T03:34:21","modified_gmt":"2025-05-10T03:34:21","slug":"extraordinary-claims-evidence-extraterrestrial-life-astronomy-may-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/extraordinary-claims-evidence-extraterrestrial-life-astronomy-may-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\u2019 \u2212 an astronomer explains how much evidence scientists need to claim discoveries like extraterrestrial life"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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\n The universe is filled with countless galaxies, stars and planets. Astronomers may find life one day, but they will need extraordinary proof.\n ESA\/Euclid\/Euclid Consortium\/NASA, image processing by J.-C. Cuillandre (CEA Paris-Saclay), G. Anselmi <\/a><\/span>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n Chris Impey<\/a>, University of Arizona<\/a><\/em><\/span>\n\n

The detection of life beyond Earth would be one of the most profound discoveries in the history of science. The Milky Way galaxy alone hosts hundreds of millions of potentially habitable planets<\/a>. Astronomers are using powerful space telescopes<\/a> to look for molecular indicators of biology in the atmospheres of the most Earth-like of these planets.<\/p>\n\n

But so far, no solid evidence of life has ever been found beyond the Earth. A paper published in April 2025 claimed to detect a signature of life in the atmosphere of the planet K2-18b<\/a>. And while this discovery is intriguing, most astronomers \u2013 including the paper\u2019s authors \u2013 aren\u2019t ready to claim that it means extraterrestrial life exists. A detection of life would be a remarkable development.<\/p>\n\n

The astronomer Carl Sagan<\/a> used the phrase, \u201cExtraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,\u201d in regard to searching for alien life. It conveys the idea that there should be a high bar for evidence to support a remarkable claim.<\/p>\n\n

I\u2019m an astronomer<\/a> who has written a book about astrobiology<\/a>. Over my career, I\u2019ve seen some compelling scientific discoveries. But to reach this threshold of finding life beyond Earth, a result needs to fit several important criteria.<\/p>\n\n

When is a result important and reliable?<\/h2>\n\n

There are three criteria for a scientific result to represent a true discovery and not be subject to uncertainty and doubt. How does the claim of life on K2-18b measure up?<\/p>\n\n

First, the experiment needs to measure a meaningful and important quantity. Researchers observed K2-18b\u2019s atmosphere with the James Webb Space Telescope<\/a> and saw a spectral feature that they identified as dimethyl sulfide. <\/p>\n\n

On Earth, dimethyl sulfide is associated with biology<\/a>, in particular bacteria and plankton in the oceans. However, it can also arise by other means, so this single molecule is not conclusive proof of life<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

Second, the detection needs to be strong. Every detector has some noise from the random motion of electrons. The signal should be strong enough to have a low probability of arising by chance from this noise.<\/p>\n\n

The K2-18b detection has a significance of 3-sigma<\/a>, which means it has a 0.3% probability of arising by chance. <\/p>\n\n

That sounds low, but most scientists would consider that a weak detection<\/a>. There are many molecules that could create a feature in the same spectral range.<\/p>\n\n

The \u201cgold standard\u201d for scientific detection is 5-sigma<\/a>, which means the probability of the finding happening by chance is less than 0.00006%. For example, physicists at CERN<\/a> gathered data patiently for two years until they had a 5-sigma detection of the Higgs boson particle<\/a>, leading to a Nobel Prize<\/a> one year later in 2013.<\/p>\n\n

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