{"id":11948,"date":"2024-06-04T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-04T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/?p=11948"},"modified":"2024-05-28T18:39:08","modified_gmt":"2024-05-28T18:39:08","slug":"what-is-net-zero-anyway-a-short-history-of-a-monumental-concept","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/what-is-net-zero-anyway-a-short-history-of-a-monumental-concept\/","title":{"rendered":"What is \u2018Net Zero\u2019, anyway? A short history of a monumental concept"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"theconversation-article-body\">\n\n  <span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/ruth-morgan-1252\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ruth Morgan<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em><\/span>\n\n  <p>Last month, the leaders of the G7 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.g7italy.it\/en\/g7-ministers-meeting-on-climate-energy-and-environment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">declared<\/a> their commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest. Closer to home, the Albanese government recently introduced legislation to establish a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pm.gov.au\/media\/historic-legislation-establish-net-zero-economy-authority#:%7E:text=The%20Albanese%20Government%20is%20already,broader%20benefits%20for%20our%20nation.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Net Zero Economy Authority<\/a>, promising it will catalyse investment in clean energy technologies in the push to reach net zero. <\/p>\n\n<p>Pledges to achieve net zero emissions over the coming decades have proliferated since the United Nation\u2019s 2021 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/climatechange\/cop26\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Glasgow climate summit<\/a>, as governments declare their commitments to meeting the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming under 1.5\u00b0C. But what exactly is \u201cnet zero\u201d, and where did this concept come from? <\/p>\n\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"tc-infographic-973\" class=\"tc-infographic\" height=\"400px\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.theconversation.com\/infographics\/973\/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b\/site\/index.html\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n<h2 id=\"stabilising-greenhouse-gases\">Stabilising greenhouse gases<\/h2>\n\n<p>In the early 1990s, scientists and governments were negotiating the <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/process-and-meetings\/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">key article<\/a> of the UN\u2019s 1992 climate change framework: \u201cthe stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [human-caused] interference with the climate system\u201d. How to achieve that stabilisation \u2013 let alone define \u201cdangerous\u201d climate change \u2013 has occupied climate scientists and negotiators ever since. <\/p>\n\n<p>From the outset, scientists and governments recognised reducing greenhouse gas emissions was only one side of the equation. Finding ways to compensate or offset emissions would also be necessary. <\/p>\n\n<p>The subsequent negotiation of the <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/kyoto_protocol\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kyoto Protocol<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fao.org\/4\/Y0900E\/y0900e06.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">backed<\/a> the role of forests in the global carbon cycle as carbon sinks. <\/p>\n\n<p>It also provided the means for well-forested developing countries to participate in the emerging carbon offset market, and to play their part in reaching the carbon accounting goal of \u201ccarbon neutrality\u201d. Under those terms, the industrialised countries subject to the Kyoto Protocol could pay developing countries to offset their own emissions as a form of low-cost mitigation. <\/p>\n\n<p>The Kyoto Protocol was unable to curtail soaring global greenhouse gas emissions, and a successor agreement appeared uncertain. As a result, interest turned in the late 2000s to the possibility of using <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2019\/08\/09\/615\/what-is-geoengineering-and-why-should-you-care-climate-change-harvard\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">highly controversial<\/a> geoengineering techniques to remove greenhouse gas emissions. These proposals included sucking carbon dioxide out of the sky so the atmosphere would trap less heat, or reflecting sunlight away from the planet to reduce heat absorption. The focus on carbon sinks, whether through forests or direct air capture, would appear again in the idea of net zero. <\/p>\n\n<h2 id=\"temperature-targets\">Temperature targets<\/h2>\n\n<p>By this point, policymakers and advocates were shifting away from emissions reductions goals (such as Australia\u2019s unusual <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/australia-on-track-to-meet-kyoto-protocol-target-6506\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">first Kyoto target<\/a> to limit emissions to 108% of 1990 emissions by 2012). <\/p>\n\n<p>Instead, temperature targets became more popular, such as limiting warming to no more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/two-degrees-the-history-of-climate-changes-speed-limit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">two degrees<\/a> above pre-industrial levels. The European Union had already adopted the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iddri.org\/en\/node\/21503\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2\u00b0C threshold<\/a> in 1996 and argued successfully for its relevance as a long-term objective for climate action.<\/p>\n\n<p>What changed was scientists now had better ways of tracking how long carbon dioxide emissions would stay in the atmosphere, allowing better projections of our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-why-the-ipcc-1-5c-report-expanded-the-carbon-budget\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">carbon budget<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n<p>These findings allowed the IPCC\u2019s 2014 report to clearly state limiting warming to below 2\u00b0C would require \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ar5-syr.ipcc.ch\/topic_pathways.php#section_3_4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">near zero<\/a> emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By this time, London-based environmental lawyer and climate negotiator <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Farhana_Yamin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Farhana Yamin<\/a> had also set her sights on net zero by 2050. For Yamin, translating the 1.5\u00b0C ambition into climate negotiations meant <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/abcef70cf9c24f0f8e10ccd6a4370557\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">focusing on net zero<\/a>: \u201cIn your lifetime, emissions have to go to zero. That\u2019s a message people understand.\u201d<\/p>\n\n<p>The concept of net zero offered a simple metric to assess mitigation efforts and hold parties legally accountable \u2013 an instrument she and colleagues <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iddri.org\/fr\/publications-et-evenements\/document-de-travail\/possible-elements-2015-legal-agreement-climate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">proposed<\/a> for the negotiation of a new legally binding agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. <\/p>\n\n<p>By late 2014, net zero had gained traction, appearing for the first time at a <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/process\/conferences\/pastconferences\/lima-climate-change-conference-december-2014\/adp-2-7\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UN climate conference<\/a>, the UN\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un-ilibrary.org\/content\/books\/9789210479660\/read\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Emissions Gap Report<\/a>, and in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/news\/speech\/2014\/12\/08\/transforming-the-economy-to-achieve-zero-net-emissions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">speech<\/a> by World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim that stressed \u201cwe must achieve zero net emissions of greenhouse gases before 2100\u201d.<\/p>\n\n<h2 id=\"zero-in-paris\">Zero in Paris<\/h2>\n\n<p>These efforts culminated in the <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/process-and-meetings\/the-paris-agreement?gad_source=1&amp;gclid=CjwKCAjwl4yyBhAgEiwADSEjePgRM7oHWv5Vz5AvhapSuLYmzuhDsPBmqf8ofkFhbjg_1MK5BNkc3hoCUn0QAvD_BwE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2015 Paris Agreement<\/a>, which in addition to its well-known temperature targets of 1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C, also added a complementary goal: <\/p>\n\n<blockquote>\n<p>To undertake rapid [emissions] reductions \u2026 so as to achieve a <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/most-requested\/key-aspects-of-the-paris-agreement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">balance<\/a> between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n<p>This is what \u201cnet zero\u201d means \u2013 a \u201cbalance\u201d between carbon emissions and carbon sinks. It was subsequently enshrined in the IPCC\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/chapter-2\/#:%7E:text=In%20model%20pathways%20with%20no,2045%E2%80%932055%20interquartile%20range\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Special Report<\/a> on the importance of keeping warming under 1.5\u00b0C, in which 195 member states agreed to get to net zero emissions by 2050. <\/p>\n\n<h2 id=\"slogan-for-greenwashing\">Slogan for greenwashing?<\/h2>\n\n<p>So, what\u2019s next for net zero? Countries <a href=\"https:\/\/pminewyork.gov.in\/others?id=NDYzNA,,\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">such as India<\/a> have questioned what it means for fairness and equity between developing and developed nations, Instead, they favour the well-established approach of \u201ccommon but differentiated responsibility\u201d to mitigation. This justifies India\u2019s aim to reach net zero emissions by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mea.gov.in\/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl\/34466\/National+Statement+by+Prime+Minister+Shri+Narendra+Modi+at+COP26+Summit+in+Glasgow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2070<\/a>, as developed nations should lead the way and provide developing countries with funds and technologies necessary to support their mitigation ambitions.<\/p>\n\n<p>The UN, by contrast, has warned the flexibility of net zero as a concept could make it a mere slogan for <a href=\"https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2022\/11\/1130317\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">greenwashing<\/a> by corporations and other non-state entities rather than a concrete objective. <\/p>\n\n<p>As the chair of the UN\u2019s High Level Experts group put it: <\/p>\n\n<blockquote>\n<p>It\u2019s not just advertising, bogus net-zero claims drive up the cost that ultimately everyone would pay. Including people not in this room, through huge impacts, climate migration and their very lives.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n<p>Given the chasm between pledges and practice documented in the 2023 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unep.org\/resources\/emissions-gap-report-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UN Emissions Gap Report<\/a>, there is a very real likelihood we will shoot past the temperature limits of the Paris Agreement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"fossil-fuel-treaty\">Fossil fuel treaty<\/h2>\n\n<p>Net zero isn\u2019t the only approach to tackle climate change. Other concepts are growing in popularity. <\/p>\n\n<p>For instance, optimists say the temperature \u201covershoot\u201d we\u2019re on track for could be  tackled with a \u201cdrawdown\u201d of carbon emissions if we use \u201ccarbon dioxide removal\u201d or \u201cnegative emissions technologies\u201d such as <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/not-all-carbon-capture-projects-pay-off-for-the-climate-we-mapped-the-pros-and-cons-of-each-and-found-clear-winners-and-losers-218425\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">carbon capture and storage<\/a>, soil carbon sequestration, and mass tree planting and reforestation. <\/p>\n\n<p>But beware: the IPCC\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/spm\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Special Report<\/a> cautioned that while some of these options might be technologically possible, they have not been tested on a large scale. <\/p>\n\n<p>Can these untested technologies be relied on to halt and reverse the chaos likely to be unleashed by dangerous levels of global heating? <\/p>\n\n<p>What does overshoot mean for the low-lying island nations who rallied around \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/meeting-the-1-5-c-climate-goal-will-save-millions-of-people-and-its-still-feasible\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">1.5\u00b0C to stay alive<\/a>\u201d? <\/p>\n\n<p>Momentum has been building for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty since 2022, when <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2022\/09\/23\/vanuatu-calls-fossil-fuel-non-proliferation-treaty-un-general-assembly\/#:%7E:text=Vanuatu%2C%20a%20Pacific%20island%20nation,call%20for%20such%20a%20treaty.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vanuatu<\/a> called on the UN General Assembly to phase out the use of fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n<p>Such a treaty, Vanuatu President Nikenike Vurobaravu said, would \u201cenable a global just transition for every worker, community and nation with fossil fuel dependence\u201d.<\/p>\n\n<p>At the Dubai climate conference late last year, held in the wake of the International Energy Agency\u2019s revised <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/news\/the-path-to-limiting-global-warming-to-1-5-c-has-narrowed-but-clean-energy-growth-is-keeping-it-open?utm_content=buffer9335a&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter-ieabirol&amp;utm_campaign=buffer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Net Zero Roadmap<\/a>, the negotiations culminated in a <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/documents\/637073\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">first<\/a> for the UNFCCC \u2013 an explicit statement endorsing: <\/p>\n\n<blockquote>\n<p>transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n<p>Will net zero become more than hot air? That remains to be seen. While the science behind the concept is broadly sound, the politics of achieving net zero are a work in progress. <\/p>\n\n<p>Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the point where they are zeroed out by carbon sinks by 2050 requires just and credible planning. We must prioritise the phase-out of fossil fuels sooner rather than later.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img  loading=\"lazy\"  decoding=\"async\"  src=\"data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEUAAP+KeNJXAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAAApJREFUCNdjYAAAAAIAAeIhvDMAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\"  alt=\"The Conversation\"  width=\"1\"  height=\"1\"  style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important\"  referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\"  class=\" pk-lazyload\"  data-pk-sizes=\"auto\"  data-pk-src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/229901\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" ><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n\n  <p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/ruth-morgan-1252\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ruth Morgan<\/a>, Associate Professor of History, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n  <p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/what-is-net-zero-anyway-a-short-history-of-a-monumental-concept-229901\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ruth Morgan, Australian National University Last month, the leaders of the G7 declared their commitment to achieving net&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":835,"featured_media":11950,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/7\/75\/IEA_%E2%80%93_COP26_Net_Zero_Summit_%2801012882%29_%2851082444248%29.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13,18],"tags":[120,1414,221,474],"class_list":{"0":"post-11948","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-earth","8":"category-history","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-net-zero","11":"tag-renewable-energy","12":"tag-the-conversation","13":"cs-entry","14":"cs-video-wrap"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/835"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11948"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11948\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11949,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11948\/revisions\/11949"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modernsciences.org\/staging\/4414\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}